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በአይጋ ፎረም – ደቡብ ይበታተናል፤ ኢህአዴግ ፈርሶ እስከ ምርጫ ፕሬዚዳንቷ የሽግግር መንግስት ይምሩ ይላል!!

ኢህኣዴግ የኣራት ድርጅቶች ህብረት ወይም ግምባር ነው። ደኢህዴን፣ ኦዴፓ፣ አዴፓ እና ህወሓት በኣባልነት ያቀፈ ድርጅት ሲሆን ኣራቱም ድርጅቶች የሚመርጡት ሰው የግንባሩ ሊቀ መንበር ሆኖ ያገለግላል።በተለመደው ኣሰራርም ሊቀ መንበሩ / ይሆናል።

ኣሁን ያለው የድርጅቱ ሁኔታ

 – ደኢህዴን (ደቡብ)

ሃለማሪያም ደሳለኝ በሚመራው የወላይታ ሶዶ እና በኣብዛኛው ሲዳማዎች የበዙበት ቡዱኖች መካከልበተፈጠረው ውስጣዊ መቦዳደን ምክንያት ድርጅቱ ከሁለት ኣልፎ ወደ ኣራትና ኣምስት ቡዱኖችተሰነጣጥቀዋል። ለጊዜው ሃይለማሪያም የመራው ቡዱን ኣብይ ኣህመድ ጋር በመጠጋት ሲዳማዎችን ከስልጣንበማግለል ነጥብ ያስቆጠረ ሲሆን ኣጠቃላይ ውጤቱ ግን ከድርጅቱ ኣልፎ የክልሉን መፍረስ ኣይቀሬ መሆኑን ኣመላክቷል። እንደሚታወቀው የሲዳማ እና የወላይታ ሶዶ ዞን ምክርቤቶች የየራሳቸው ክልል ሆነውእንዲቋቋሙ ወስኗል። ይህንን ተከትሎ ለረጅም ጊዜ ተከፍቶ የቆየውን የከፊቾ ዞንም ተመሳሳይ ጥያቄ እያቀረበ ሲሆን በደቡብ ክልል ሲተዳደር የነበረው የጉራጌ ዞንም ተመሳሳይ መንገድ ተከትሏል። በኣጭሩ የደቡብብሄር ብሄረ ሰቦች እና ህዝቦችን ወክሎ ኢህኣዴግ ውስጥ በኣባልነት የቆየውን ደኢህዴን ህልውናው እያከተመ ነው።

 – ኦዴፓ (ኦሮሚያ)

 እስከ ቅርብ ጊዜ ኦህዴድ የነበረው ድርጅት ኦዴፓ በሚል ኣዲስ ስም ተጠምቆ በኣብይ ኣህመድ እየተመራ ነው። ኢህኣዴግን በሊቀ መንበርነትና ኣገሪቱን በጠቅላይ ሚኒስትርነት እየመራ ነው። ኦዴፓ ኢህኣዴግንበጦርነት ሲፈልጉት የነበሩ ኣንዳንድ ከኦነግን የተነጠሉ ሃይሎች ጋር በግልጽ ያልታወጀ ውህደት መፍጠሩ በተግባር ታይቷል። ይህ በእንዲህ እንዳለ በኢህኣዴግ ኣባል ድርጅቶች መካከል መግባባት መጥፋቱ ኦዴፓየፈላጭ ቆራጭነት ሚና እንዲጫወት ሰፊ ዕድል ከመፍጠሩም በላይ ወደ ጠቅላይ ኣግላይ የፖለቲካ ስሌት በትግባር በመግባቱ በግምባሩ ኣባላት ከፍተኛ ጥርጣሬ ኣስነስቷል። ኦዴፓ በኣንድ በኩል ኢህኣዴግን ይዞበጠቅላይ ሚኒስትርነት ኣገሪቱን እየመራ ሲሆን በሌላ በኩል ደግሞ የኢህኣዴግ ተፃራሪ (ተፎካካሪ) ሆኖ የድጅቱን ስምና ታሪክ ከማጉደፍ ኣልፎ ግንባሩ እስከ ኣሁን ያስገኛቸውን ኣለም የመሰከረው ድሎችን በማንቋሸሽላይ ተሰማርቶ እናገኘዋለን። ከዛም ከፍ ይልና በኢህኣዴግ በተለይም ከህወሓት ጋር በጦር ሜዳና በፖለቲካ ሜዳ ደጋግሞ የተሸነፉ የቂም ሃይሎችን ከጎኑ ለማሰለፍ ይረዳው ዘንድ የተከተለው ስልት ኢህኣዴግን እየመራኢህኣዴግን ማፍረስ ሲሆን የግንባሩ ወሳኝ ሃይል ሆኖ እስከ ኣሁን የመጣውን ህወሓትም የሁሉም ኣይነት ዕዳና ጥቃት ሰለባ ማድርጉን መርጠዋል። በኣጭሩ የእነ ኣብይ ብዱን ተቀባይነት ኣግኝቶ ስልጣን ላይ ለመቆየትየተከተለው መንገድ ኢህኣዴግን ተጠቅሞ ህወሓትን ለእርድ ማቅረብና ሲችልም ከምድረ ገፅ ማጥፋትን ነው።

 – ኣዴፓ (ኣማራ)

እስከ ቅርብ ጊዜ ብኣዴን የነበረው የኣማራው ክልል ድርጅት ኣዴፓ ተብሎ በስምም በይዘትም የተለየ ሆኖ ብቅ በሏል። ኣዴፓ ኢህኣዴግን ክዶ የጽንፈኛው ካምፕ ከተቀላቀለ ኣመታት ቢያስቆጥርም እስከ ኣምና ድረስእውነተኛ ማንነቱን ለመግለፅ የተቸገረበት ሁኔታ ነው የነበረው። ባህርዳር ላይ ወግንናውን የደርጎች ካምፕ መሆኑ ከገለጸ ወዲህ ግን ኣንድ እግሩ ኢህኣዴግ ላይ ሌላኛው ደግሞ ኣዴን ከተባለ ድርጅት ጋር ግምባርመፍጠሩ ይፋ ኣድርገዋል። ይህ ባህሪዩ በዓላማ እና በኣካሄድ የተለያዩና በእጅጉ የሚቃረኑ ሁለት የፖለቲካ ካምፖች ውስጥ በኣባልነት ገብቶ የሚታገል በኣለም ውስጥ ብቸኛ ድርጅት ያደርገዋል። እዚህ ላይ የኢህኣዴግኣባል ድርጅቶች ከግንባሩ ሳይሰናበቱ ከሌላ ድርጅቶች (ያውም ኢህኣዴግን በትጥቅ ትግል ለመፋለም ከተዘጋጀ ሃይል) ጋር መወሃድ እንዴት እንደሚመለከቱት ራሳቸው ቢመልሱልን መልካም ነበር። ኣዴፓ ከማንምድርጅት ጋር መዋሃድ መብቱ ቢሆንም ኣንዱን ካምፕ ሊመርጥ የግድ ይላል። ሊሰመርበት የሚገባ ነገር ቢኖር ግን ኣዴፓ እንዲህ ኣይነት የፈጠጠ ስህተት ውስጥ የገባው የኢህኣዴግ ቀጣይነት የራሱን ተቀባይነት ጥያቄውስጥ ይከተኛል ብሎ ስለገመተ ግምባሩን ለማፍረስ የወሰደው የበኩሉን እርምጃ እንደሆነ ግልፅ ነው።

 – ህወሓት

ኢህኣዴግን እና ከላይ የተጠቀሱት ሶስቱ ኣባል ድርጅቶች ከልጅነት እስከ እውቀት ድረስ ኮትኩቶ ያሳደገው ህወሓት የኢትዮጵያ የፖለቲካሃይሎች ሴራና ጭካኔ እስከ ኣሁን ሊገባው ባለመቻሉ ኣሁንም በስም ብቻየቀረውን ኢህኣዴግ የሙጥኝ ብሎ እየቀጠለ ነው። በመፍረስ ላይ ያለውን ደኢህዴን እና ከሌሎች ድርጅቶች ጋር ውህደት እየፈጸመ ያለውን ኣዴፓ ከዚህ በኋላ የግንባሩ ኣባላት ሆኖው እንደማይቀጥሉ ግልፅ እየሆነበመጣበት ሁኔታ እና ከኢህኣዴግ የፖለቲካ ፕሮግራምና ዓላማ ምንም ኣይነት ግኑኝነት ከሌለው ኦዴፓ ጋር መቀጠል ለምን እንደ መረጠ ግልፅ ኣይደለም። ኦዴፓ ኢህኣዴግን እንደ ካሁን ቀደሙ ጊዚያዊ የመሸጋገሪያድልድይ ኣድርጎ ለመጠቀም እንጂ ከዛ ያለፈ እንደማይሆን በእርግጠኝነት መናገር ይቻላል።  

ስለዚህ ኦዴፓ (ODP) በዚህ ውጥንቅጥ ውስጥ የገባ ህብረት በጊዚያዊነት ማስቀጠል የፈለገበት ምክንያት ግልፅ ነው። የኣማራው ኣዴፓም ግንባሩ ውስጥ መቆየት የሚፈልገው በኢህኣዴግ ኣባልነት ያገኛቸውንየሚንስትርነት ቦታዎች ለጊዚየውም ቢሆን ማጣት ስለማይፈልግ ነው ብንል ኣልተሳሳትንም። የዴኢህዴን ጉዳይም ኣክትሞለታል። ህወሓት በኢህኣዴግ ኣባልነት ይህ ነው የሚባል ስልጣን የለውም ብቻ ሳይሆንኢህኣዴግን እየመራ ያለው የኣብይ ኣህመድ መንግስት የህወሓትን ማህበራዊ መሰረት ከሆነው የትግራይ ህዝብ ሊነጥለው እየታገለ ባለበት እውነታ፣ በስመ ትግራዋይ ከዘበኛ እስከ ተራ ባለሙያ ከስራ ገበታቸውእያባረረና እያሰረ ባለበት ሁኔታ እና ህወሓትን ለእርድ ማቅረብ የድጋፍ ማሰባሰቢያ ዋነኛ የትግል ስልት ኣድርጎ እየሰራ ባለበት ሁኔታ በስም ያለ በትግባር ግን የፈረሰ ግንባር ውስጥ መቀጠል ለምን እንደፈለገ ግልፅኣይደለም።  

በኣጠቃላይ፣ ኢህአዴግ የለም

በኣጠቃላይ፣ ኢህአዴግ የለም በኢህኣዴግ ስም ተሸፍኖ ኣገሪቱን እየመራ ያለው ጥገኛ/ቅጥረኛ ሃይል ኢህኣዴግ ቢያፈርሰው ህጋዊነቱ ጥያቄ ውስጥ ስለሚገባ ግንባሩን ተጠቅሞ ወደ ቀጣይ ድል እስኪሸጋገር ድረስኣያፈርሰውም። እዚህ ላይ መገንዘብ ያለብን ይህ በኢህኣዴግ ስም ስልጣን ላይ ወጥቶ በውጭ ሃይሎች (ኣገሩን እና ያዋረደውን ኢሳያስን ኣፈወርቂን ጨምሮ) ኣማካሪነት ኣገሪቱን እየመራ ያለውን የኣብይ ኣህመድመንግስት በኣገሪቱ ላይ ለሚያደርሰው ጥፋት ሁሉም የግንባሩ ኣባላት በታሪክ ተጠያቂ የሚያደርግ ይሆናል። ይህ እንዳይሆን ከተፈለገ የኢህኣዴግ ኣባል ድርጅቶች ያላቸው ኣማራጭ ከኣባልነት በመሰናበት የኣብይኣህመድን የሊቀ መንበርነት ሚናው የሚያከትምበት ሁኔታ በመፍጠር ኣገሪቱ ከገባችበት የመበታተን ኣደጋ ሊታደግ ይችላሉ። የሚመራው ግንባር ኣይኖርምና። በጠ/ሚንስትርነት ለመቀጠል የሚያስችልድርጅታዊ ውክልና ወይም የህግ ማእቀፍም ስለማይኖር የሚኖረው ኣማራጭ ኣንድም ወደ ኣጠቃላይ ምርጫ መግባት፣ ኣሊያም ርእሰ ብሄርዋ ኣገሪቱን ተረክበው እስከ የሚቀጥለው ምርጫ ድረስ የሚሄድ የሽግግርመንግስት እንዲቋቃም ማስቻል ነው።  

ይህ ሁኔታ ሊፈጠር እንደሚችል የተገንዘበው የኣብይ ኣህመድ ቡድን በተከፈተ ቤት ገብቶ ያገኘውን ስልጣን ላለማጣት ሲል ከወዲሁ ኣደገኛ ዝግጅት ላይ ተሰማርቷል። ጥቂቶችን ለመጥቀስ ያክል በሪፎርም ስምየመከላከያ እና የፀጥታ ሃይሉን ለስልጣኑ በሚመቸው ቅርፅ መገንባት እና የክልል መንግስታትን ኣተራምሶ ኣዳዲስ ታዛዥ ኣስተዳደሮችን እየፈጠረ ይገኛል። ይህ በእንዲህ እንዳለ ራሱ ኣብይ ኣህመድ ከተራ ኣገልጋይነትእስከ ባለስልጣን ሆኖ የቆየበትን መንግስት ላይ የሰሩ ዜጎችን ብሄርን የለየ የብቀላ እርምጃ በመውሰድ በተቃርኖ ከቆሙትን ሃይሎች ስሜታዊ ድጋፍ በማሰባሰብ ላይ ተጠምዷል። በፊት ኢህኣደግን መስሎ ኢህኣዴግንመታገል ሲል የነበረው ጥገኛ ሃይል ዛሬ ኢህኣዴግን እየመራ ኢህኣዴግን ማፍረስ እንደሚቻል በትግባር ኣሳይቶናል። እየሆነ ያለው ይሄው ነው። ቸር ያሰማን።

ገ/አ – አይጋ ፎረም

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